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  1. Article

    No base case: Central Banks in a world of widening outcomes

  2. Market Update

    Inflation rebuilds and growth slows

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    • Fiscal & Monetary Policy
    Markets are adjusting to a more difficult macro environment. Higher energy prices and early signs of slowing growth are beginning to move together. WTI crude remained near $100 per barrel following its recent surge, keeping inflation risks in focus. Equities declined, with the S&P 500 down...
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  3. Market Update

    BoE and ECB keep rates on hold but both warn of inflation risks amid Middle East conflict

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    The Bank of England’s (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted unanimously to keep interest rates at 3.75% today, as they warned of a rising risk to the path of inflation and economic outlook from the worsening conflict in the Middle East. While the decision itself was widely expected, the...
  4. Market Update

    FOMC holds rates, maintains mildly restrictive stance

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    On Wednesday, March 18, 2026, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to hold the federal funds rate unchanged at a range of 3.50%–3.75%. All members supported the decision except Governor Miran, who dissented in favor of a 25 basis point (bp) cut. The Committee emphasized increased...
  5. Article

    The Hormuz oil shock

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    Oil prices surged after disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, reviving stagflation fears as growth weakens and energy costs rise. February inflation looked contained, but markets now expect renewed pressure, leaving the Fed cautious and investors focused on rates, spending and global central banks.
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  6. Market Update

    Surging oil prices and job losses raise stagflation risk

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    Markets were choppy as investors rotated out of tech on AI job displacement fears. The S&P 500 fell 2% and the 10-year yield rose to 4.15% as February payrolls dropped 92,000 and unemployment ticked up to 4.4%. Middle East escalation lifted oil and gas, complicating the Fed outlook. CPI and PPI...
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  7. Article

    Geopolitics, inflation expectations, and the repricing of rate risk

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    Middle East tensions rippled through rates and FX, with oil-driven inflation concerns reversing the recent disinflation-led rally in swap rates. The shift makes expected central bank easing less straightforward and has strengthened the dollar’s safe-haven appeal.
  8. News

    Jackie Bowie featured in IFR on inflation hedging amid market volatility

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    Jackie Bowie quoted in IFR on Iran conflict and inflation.
  9. Market Update

    Treasuries rally while tech tumbles

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    Stocks edged lower as investors rotated out of technology, while Treasuries rallied on flight-to-safety demand. Despite firm inflation data, the 10-year Treasury yield fell to four-month lows as markets weighed cooling growth, labor data uncertainty, and renewed questions around tariff policy.
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  10. Article

    Why the Supreme Court’s tariff decision didn’t move markets

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    The Supreme Court’s recent tariff decision was expected to bring clarity, but markets barely moved. In conversations with clients and across equity, rates, and FX markets, the reaction was notably muted. Unlike the volatility seen on Liberation Day, this ruling did not trigger a broad repricing...
1-10 of 658 results