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  1. Article

    The sovereign debt time bomb: why fiscal prudence outweighs deficit size

    Markets are shifting focus from deficit size to fiscal discipline. As discussed by Chatham’s Jackie Bowie and Amol Dhargalkar, the credibility of a government’s debt management plan now matters more than the numbers themselves, making fiscal prudence the key driver of sovereign risk.
  2. Article

    Is an end to the shutdown in sight?

    • Corporates
    • Financial Institutions
    • Infrastructure
    • Insurance
    • Private Equity
    • Real Estate
    • Interest Rate Risk Management
    • Foreign Currency Risk Management
    • Fiscal & Monetary Policy
    The government shutdown reached its 41st day, the longest on record. On Monday morning, markets were optimistic after the Senate advanced a bill late Sunday night, setting the stage for the government to reopen as soon as later this week. Employment rose by 42,000 jobs in October, slightly above...
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  3. Market Update

    BoE holds rates in split decision while ECB remains on hold

    • Corporates
    • Financial Institutions
    • Infrastructure
    • Insurance
    • Private Equity
    • Real Estate
    • Interest Rate Risk Management
    • Foreign Currency Risk Management
    • Fiscal & Monetary Policy
    The Bank of England (BoE) held rates at 4.0% today in a close 5-4 vote, with four members preferring a 25 basis point (bp) cut. Governor Andrew Bailey voted with the majority, noting that policy remains on a “gradual path downwards,” but emphasized the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) still needs...
  4. Market Update

    Fed delivers anticipated rate cut, but with a hawkish surprise

    • Corporates
    • Financial Institutions
    • Infrastructure
    • Insurance
    • Private Equity
    • Real Estate
    • Interest Rate Risk Management
    • Foreign Currency Risk Management
    • Fiscal & Monetary Policy
    Last week, the Fed delivered a much anticipated 25 basis point (bp) cut, but the commentary was more hawkish than anticipated. The looming lapse in SNAP benefits was a potential catalyst to force an end to the U.S. Government shutdown, but a federal judge ordered emergency funds be used to pay...
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  5. Article

    Data blackout: economists scramble to replace the “gold standard” with alternative data

    • Corporates
    • Financial Institutions
    • Infrastructure
    • Insurance
    • Private Equity
    • Real Estate
    • Interest Rate Risk Management
    • Foreign Currency Risk Management
    The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has created a data blackout, disrupting the flow of economic statistics and forcing economists and policymakers to operate with compromised data or no information at all. This isn't merely a delay in reporting; it's a direct impairment of the data...
  6. Market Update

    December rate cut not a foregone conclusion

    • Corporates
    • Financial Institutions
    • Infrastructure
    • Insurance
    • Private Equity
    • Real Estate
    • Interest Rate Risk Management
    • Fiscal & Monetary Policy
    On Wednesday, October 29, 2025, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to cut the Federal Funds rate by 25 basis points (bps), to a target range of 3.75%-4.00%. This marks the second cut in 2025, following ongoing concerns about the weakening U.S. labor market and rising unemployment. In...
  7. Market Update

    Fed rate cut looms

    • Corporates
    • Financial Institutions
    • Infrastructure
    • Insurance
    • Private Equity
    • Real Estate
    • Interest Rate Risk Management
    • Foreign Currency Risk Management
    • Fiscal & Monetary Policy
    Inflation came in lighter than expected, and labor market concerns all but guarantee a Fed rate cut. The housing market shows signs of recovery, while the ongoing government shutdown threatens vital programs and federal workers’ paychecks. The stock market climbed 1.9% last week, reaching a new...
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  8. Market Update

    Strong earnings so far amid the third longest government shutdown

    • Corporates
    • Financial Institutions
    • Infrastructure
    • Insurance
    • Private Equity
    • Real Estate
    • Interest Rate Risk Management
    • Foreign Currency Risk Management
    • Fiscal & Monetary Policy
    The current federal government shutdown is now the third longest in U.S. history. Fed Chair Jerome Powell reaffirmed expectations for a rate cut, signaling continued support amid economic uncertainty. The market continues to expect a 25 bps rate cut at the October meeting. The stock market rose...
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  9. Market Update

    Economy is flying blind and an additional 100% tariff on China?

    • Corporates
    • Financial Institutions
    • Infrastructure
    • Insurance
    • Private Equity
    • Real Estate
    • Interest Rate Risk Management
    • Foreign Currency Risk Management
    • Fiscal & Monetary Policy
    The stock market posted gains earlier in the week but turned sharply lower on Friday after President Trump’s new tariff threats against China triggered a sharp decline. The S&P 500 fell 2.7% on Friday, marking its largest single-day drop since April, and ended the week down 2.4%. Despite the...
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  10. Guide

    Request your Q3 2025 Lending Market Overview

    • Real Estate
    • Valuation
    The purpose of this report is to present changes in lending markets across key property types for use in marking debt to market for financial reporting. The Chatham fixed- and floating-rate indices for each property type represent how coupon rates and spreads have changed. For the third quarter...
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