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Article
The sovereign debt time bomb: why fiscal prudence outweighs deficit size
Markets are shifting focus from deficit size to fiscal discipline. As discussed by Chatham’s Jackie Bowie and Amol Dhargalkar, the credibility of a government’s debt management plan now matters more than the numbers themselves, making fiscal prudence the key driver of sovereign risk.
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Article
Is an end to the shutdown in sight?
- Corporates
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- Infrastructure
- Insurance
- Private Equity
- Real Estate
- Interest Rate Risk Management
- Foreign Currency Risk Management
- Fiscal & Monetary Policy
The government shutdown reached its 41st day, the longest on record. On Monday morning, markets were optimistic after the Senate advanced a bill late Sunday night, setting the stage for the government to reopen as soon as later this week. Employment rose by 42,000 jobs in October, slightly above...
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Market Update
BoE holds rates in split decision while ECB remains on hold
- Corporates
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- Infrastructure
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- Private Equity
- Real Estate
- Interest Rate Risk Management
- Foreign Currency Risk Management
- Fiscal & Monetary Policy
The Bank of England (BoE) held rates at 4.0% today in a close 5-4 vote, with four members preferring a 25 basis point (bp) cut. Governor Andrew Bailey voted with the majority, noting that policy remains on a “gradual path downwards,” but emphasized the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) still needs...
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Market Update
Fed delivers anticipated rate cut, but with a hawkish surprise
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- Interest Rate Risk Management
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- Fiscal & Monetary Policy
Last week, the Fed delivered a much anticipated 25 basis point (bp) cut, but the commentary was more hawkish than anticipated. The looming lapse in SNAP benefits was a potential catalyst to force an end to the U.S. Government shutdown, but a federal judge ordered emergency funds be used to pay...
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Article
Data blackout: economists scramble to replace the “gold standard” with alternative data
- Corporates
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- Infrastructure
- Insurance
- Private Equity
- Real Estate
- Interest Rate Risk Management
- Foreign Currency Risk Management
The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has created a data blackout, disrupting the flow of economic statistics and forcing economists and policymakers to operate with compromised data or no information at all. This isn't merely a delay in reporting; it's a direct impairment of the data...
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Market Update
December rate cut not a foregone conclusion
- Corporates
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- Private Equity
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- Interest Rate Risk Management
- Fiscal & Monetary Policy
On Wednesday, October 29, 2025, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to cut the Federal Funds rate by 25 basis points (bps), to a target range of 3.75%-4.00%. This marks the second cut in 2025, following ongoing concerns about the weakening U.S. labor market and rising unemployment. In...
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Market Update
Fed rate cut looms
- Corporates
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- Infrastructure
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- Private Equity
- Real Estate
- Interest Rate Risk Management
- Foreign Currency Risk Management
- Fiscal & Monetary Policy
Inflation came in lighter than expected, and labor market concerns all but guarantee a Fed rate cut. The housing market shows signs of recovery, while the ongoing government shutdown threatens vital programs and federal workers’ paychecks. The stock market climbed 1.9% last week, reaching a new...
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Market Update
Strong earnings so far amid the third longest government shutdown
- Corporates
- Financial Institutions
- Infrastructure
- Insurance
- Private Equity
- Real Estate
- Interest Rate Risk Management
- Foreign Currency Risk Management
- Fiscal & Monetary Policy
The current federal government shutdown is now the third longest in U.S. history. Fed Chair Jerome Powell reaffirmed expectations for a rate cut, signaling continued support amid economic uncertainty. The market continues to expect a 25 bps rate cut at the October meeting. The stock market rose...
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Market Update
Economy is flying blind and an additional 100% tariff on China?
- Corporates
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- Infrastructure
- Insurance
- Private Equity
- Real Estate
- Interest Rate Risk Management
- Foreign Currency Risk Management
- Fiscal & Monetary Policy
The stock market posted gains earlier in the week but turned sharply lower on Friday after President Trump’s new tariff threats against China triggered a sharp decline. The S&P 500 fell 2.7% on Friday, marking its largest single-day drop since April, and ended the week down 2.4%. Despite the...
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Guide
Request your Q3 2025 Lending Market Overview
- Real Estate
- Valuation
The purpose of this report is to present changes in lending markets across key property types for use in marking debt to market for financial reporting. The Chatham fixed- and floating-rate indices for each property type represent how coupon rates and spreads have changed. For the third quarter...
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