Amol Dhargalkar in The Wall Street Journal on Why Companies Are Acting Now in Uncertain Markets

Recent data present a mixed but evolving picture. The labor market is softening, the trade deficit is cooling, and inflation signals remain modest. Markets are pricing in slower growth, but not a recession.

Recent data shows a mixed but evolving picture. The labor market is softening, the trade deficit is narrowing, and inflation remains modest. Markets are pricing slower growth, not recession. The S&P 500 rose 1.6% last week and is up 1.8% YTD. The 10-year Treasury ended at 4.18%.

The persistence of inflation has prompted a fundamental question regarding the cornerstone of modern monetary policy: Is the 2% inflation target still realistic, or should central banks adjust it to a higher range to reflect a new environment? While the idea of a "bit of realism" appeals to some,...

U.S. markets weakened late in 2025 and had an uneven start to 2026 as investors weighed tech valuations. In 2025, the Nasdaq returned 21.1%, the S&P 500 gained 17.9%, and the Dow rose 14.9%. On the first trading day of 2026, the Dow rose 0.7%, the S&P 500 gained 0.2%, and the Nasdaq slipped.

U.S. markets sold off early last week as investors continued to question the profitability and valuation in the AI sector but then rebounded Thursday and Friday on cooling inflation data and earnings reports that alleviated some of the AI bubble fears. Overall, the S&P rose 0.1% for the week,...

The Bank of England cut rates 25 bps to 3.75% in a narrow 5–4 vote, citing easing inflation but signalling that further cuts will be gradual. The European Central Bank held rates for a fourth meeting, confident inflation is near target, highlighting diverging UK and eurozone policy paths.

U.S. markets traded higher after the FOMC meeting last Wednesday, and the S&P 500 hit an all-time high on Thursday before selling off on Friday to close the week down 0.6%. The S&P return for Q4 so far is 2.3%, and the year-to-date return to 17.5%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose 5 bps to...

On Wednesday, December 10, 2025, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to lower the fed funds rate by 25 basis points, establishing a new target range of 3.50% - 3.75%. Governors Goolsbee and Schmid favored holding rates, while governor Miran voted to lower the target range by 50 bps,...