Insights

Although it was a relatively light week for economic reporting, it proved to be very busy. Investors focused keenly on the Fed, which left rates unchanged, in line with market expectations. Chair Powell noted an increase in uncertainty since the last policy meeting and reiterated his belief the...

In the world of fixed income, the shape of the yield curve always tells a story — and the current yield curve is showing something we rarely see — a U-shape. It’s a unique situation, and positioning for it can be critical for both issuers and investors.

The Bank of England (BoE) cut interest rates by 25 basis points today, citing concerns over Donald Trump’s tariff policies on economic growth. However, the bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) was unexpectedly split three-ways in its decision as it faces the more unpredictable...

On Wednesday, May 7, 2025, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously to hold the fed funds rate at a target range of 4.25% - 4.50%. The FOMC statement mentioned an increase in uncertainty around the economic outlook since the last meeting. The Fed board believes its monetary...

A wave of economic data was released last week, giving investors plenty to ponder. Some data concerned investors, such as a negative GDP print, the continued slide in consumer confidence, and an uptick in jobless claims. However, several items boosted investor sentiment, with a PCE index in line...

Last week, the markets found glimpses of hope regarding tariff negotiations as the U.S. is reportedly discussing deals with a handful of trading partners, including China. Worries around Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s job security and independence of the Fed eased after President Trump assured the...

Last week, the markets digested President Trump’s confidence in securing trade deals, his lack of confidence in Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and a mixed bag of economic news. The S&P 500 finished the week down 1.49%, and the 10-year Treasury retreated about 16 bps, closing the week at 4.33%. While...

Last week was another roller-coaster week as markets tried to digest announcements surrounding U.S. trade policy. Cooler inflation reports failed to calm markets even though both CPI and PPI came in below expectations. The S&P 500 finished the week up 5.73% after posting a 9.52% single-day return...

FX volatility poses a growing challenge for treasury and financial teams in today's increasingly unpredictable global landscape. Geopolitical tensions, tariff turmoil, shifting central bank policies, and inflationary pressures are driving currency fluctuations across markets. These fluctuations...

The tariff announcements on April 2 added clarity to U.S. trade policy. However, the tariffs were more severe than anticipated and sent markets reeling. The S&P 500 declined -9.05%, sending it into correction territory. The 10-year Treasury also declined sharply, closing the week at 4.0%, a...

The forward curve serves as a baseline projection of future interest rates to support investment analysis. Borrowers can use it to evaluate potential costs and returns on investments. While not a precise forecast, forward curves can help borrowers identify potentially advantageous times to...

The Fed dot plot is a visual representation of the projections made by each member of the Federal Reserve regarding the Central Bank's key short-term interest rate.

Last week was another choppy week for markets as data again pointed to a slowing consumer and sticky inflation. U.S. trade policy continues to drive uncertainty, and the announcement of 25% tariffs on imported cars, trucks, and auto parts added to worries. Yields remained largely range-bound as...

Last week was another choppy week as investors continued to worry about higher inflation and slowing growth. The Fed’s projections did not assuage those concerns, as officials lowered their GDP forecast while raising their projections for core inflation. However, Chair Powell emphasized that they...

The Bank of England (BoE) kept rates on hold as expected today, with policy makers voting 8-1 to leave rates at 4.50%. After cutting rates in February, the Bank’s statement repeated that it would take a “gradual and careful approach” toward future rate cuts. However, there was a more cautious...

On Wednesday, March 19, 2025, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to hold the fed funds rate at a target range of 4.25%-4.50%. The FOMC also decided to reduce the balance sheet runoff in Treasurys from $25B to $5B, with no change in agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS). Chair Powell...

It was another volatile week for markets. U.S. trade policy announcements, retractions, and retaliatory tariffs continue to dominate the headlines, creating market uncertainty. President Trump did not allay investor concerns as he failed to rule out a potential recession in the near-term. Several...

Last week was a volatile week for markets as investors tried to make sense of the shifts in U.S. trade policy. Several mixed economic releases further fueled investor anxiety. The S&P 500 closed the week down 3.1%, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.3%.

Last week brought positive news on inflation, with the PCE index easing to 2.5% and the Core PCE index to 2.6%, both in line with expectations. However, signs of a slowing economy emerged, with weak housing data, an uptick in jobless claims, and weaker than expected consumer spending — resulting...

In our second episode of Expert Conversations: Beyond, Kern Roberts and Benoit Duhil de Benaze explore the challenges and opportunities in deal structuring and M&A activity. They highlight the importance of financial risk planning, discussing strategies such as pre-hedging, scenario analysis, and...

Last week was a light one for economic reporting, but investors still had plenty to ponder. Weak housing and consumer sentiment data, along with policy changes from Washington, brought more uncertainty than clarity.

Join Jackie Bowie and Mark Weiss as they provide a comprehensive view of the forces shaping the financial markets and global economy. With uncertainty surrounding interest rates, inflation, and geopolitical conflicts, businesses must remain agile in managing risk. Discover market trends, updated...

CPI and PPI caught the attention of investors last week as they both were hotter than expected. The market’s initial reaction to the CPI report sent the 10-year Treasury yield higher by ~10 bps, closing at 4.63% on Wednesday. However, by the end of the week, as the markets had time to digest the...

This episode of Expert Conversations: Unpacked features insights from Jackie Bowie and Moritz Sterzinger from a recent interview with Jonathan Goldstein, Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer, Cain International. In their conversation, Jackie and Moritz dive deeper into Jonathan's perspectives...