Insights

In this episode of Expert Conversations: Beyond, Reuben Daniels and Laura Grant explore the rare U-shaped yield curve, seen only 3% of the time in the past 50 years. What does this unusual shape suggest about the future of interest rates and the broader economy? How should financial leaders...

There were several economic data releases last week, and while they remain mixed, markets responded favorably. The S&P 500 posted a 5.33% return on the week with most of those gains following the ease of trade tensions between the U.S. and China. The 10-year yield finished the week 10 bps higher...

Although it was a relatively light week for economic reporting, it proved to be very busy. Investors focused keenly on the Fed, which left rates unchanged, in line with market expectations. Chair Powell noted an increase in uncertainty since the last policy meeting and reiterated his belief the...

In the world of fixed income, the shape of the yield curve always tells a story — and the current yield curve is showing something we rarely see — a U-shape. It’s a unique situation, and positioning for it can be critical for both issuers and investors.

The Bank of England (BoE) cut interest rates by 25 basis points today, citing concerns over Donald Trump’s tariff policies on economic growth. However, the bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) was unexpectedly split three-ways in its decision as it faces the more unpredictable...

On Wednesday, May 7, 2025, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously to hold the fed funds rate at a target range of 4.25% - 4.50%. The FOMC statement mentioned an increase in uncertainty around the economic outlook since the last meeting. The Fed board believes its monetary...

A wave of economic data was released last week, giving investors plenty to ponder. Some data concerned investors, such as a negative GDP print, the continued slide in consumer confidence, and an uptick in jobless claims. However, several items boosted investor sentiment, with a PCE index in line...

Last week, the markets found glimpses of hope regarding tariff negotiations as the U.S. is reportedly discussing deals with a handful of trading partners, including China. Worries around Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s job security and independence of the Fed eased after President Trump assured the...

Last week, the markets digested President Trump’s confidence in securing trade deals, his lack of confidence in Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and a mixed bag of economic news. The S&P 500 finished the week down 1.49%, and the 10-year Treasury retreated about 16 bps, closing the week at 4.33%. While...

FX hedging costs vary across currency pairs. “Cost” from a certain direction of capital flow is in fact a “gain” in the opposite direction.

Last week was another roller-coaster week as markets tried to digest announcements surrounding U.S. trade policy. Cooler inflation reports failed to calm markets even though both CPI and PPI came in below expectations. The S&P 500 finished the week up 5.73% after posting a 9.52% single-day return...

FX volatility poses a growing challenge for treasury and financial teams in today's increasingly unpredictable global landscape. Geopolitical tensions, tariff turmoil, shifting central bank policies, and inflationary pressures are driving currency fluctuations across markets. These fluctuations...

The purpose of this report is to present changes in lending markets across key property types for use in marking debt to market for financial reporting. The Chatham fixed- and floating-rate indices for each property type represent how coupon rates and spreads have changed. For the first quarter...

The tariff announcements on April 2 added clarity to U.S. trade policy. However, the tariffs were more severe than anticipated and sent markets reeling. The S&P 500 declined -9.05%, sending it into correction territory. The 10-year Treasury also declined sharply, closing the week at 4.0%, a...

Chatham sets out its business plan assumptions for Q1 2025. Our latest market update highlights how Q1 market movements, inflation trends, and evolving rate expectations are shaping key business plan assumptions for social housing providers.

Credit spreads shown are averages based on market rate conclusions for independent debt valuations conducted as of March 31, 2025. The market spread for an individual loan may vary based on property and loan characteristics, including, but not limited to, location, tenant profile, cash flow, and...

The forward curve serves as a baseline projection of future interest rates to support investment analysis. Borrowers can use it to evaluate potential costs and returns on investments. While not a precise forecast, forward curves can help borrowers identify potentially advantageous times to...

Last week was another choppy week for markets as data again pointed to a slowing consumer and sticky inflation. U.S. trade policy continues to drive uncertainty, and the announcement of 25% tariffs on imported cars, trucks, and auto parts added to worries. Yields remained largely range-bound as...

The Fed dot plot is a visual representation of the projections made by each member of the Federal Reserve regarding the Central Bank's key short-term interest rate.

In our Turn to Chatham video series, Jackie Bowie provides exclusive insights into market developments shaping the U.K. and Europe.

Last week was another choppy week as investors continued to worry about higher inflation and slowing growth. The Fed’s projections did not assuage those concerns, as officials lowered their GDP forecast while raising their projections for core inflation. However, Chair Powell emphasized that they...

The Bank of England (BoE) kept rates on hold as expected today, with policy makers voting 8-1 to leave rates at 4.50%. After cutting rates in February, the Bank’s statement repeated that it would take a “gradual and careful approach” toward future rate cuts. However, there was a more cautious...

On Wednesday, March 19, 2025, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to hold the fed funds rate at a target range of 4.25%-4.50%. The FOMC also decided to reduce the balance sheet runoff in Treasurys from $25B to $5B, with no change in agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS). Chair Powell...

It was another volatile week for markets. U.S. trade policy announcements, retractions, and retaliatory tariffs continue to dominate the headlines, creating market uncertainty. President Trump did not allay investor concerns as he failed to rule out a potential recession in the near-term. Several...